As best as I can tell, the Northern Tier proposal calls for only four stations:
- Boston
- Fitchburg
- Greenfield
- North Adams
Of these, only North Adams receives unique service, and of course Boston and Fitchburg are already spoken for. The current proposal outlines a lower-investment and a higher-investment alternative:
Those are some pretty hefty time savings, at what looks like a pretty hefty upgrade cost. About a half hour saved between Greenfield and North Adams, and another half hour saved between Greenfield and Fitchburg.
But why not run the service via Springfield instead?
Journey times
The NNEIRI estimated BOS <> SPG travel times at about 2 hours (give or take, depending on which alternative you look at). It then estimates 45 minutes from Springfield to Greenfield — putting it on par with the 2h35m estimated in the Northern Tier’s lower investment alt.
Boston <> Greenfield, via Northern Tier (lower investment): 2h35m
Boston <> Greenfield, via Springfield: 2h45m
If the higher investment upgrades between Greenfield and North Adams are incorporated, in theory you could get a North Adams <> Springfield <> Boston travel time of about 3h30m. That is admittedly slower than the even 3h afforded by upgrading all the track between Fitchburg and Greenfield, but it would be achievable with a fraction of the cost, given its ability to leverage East-West Rail and Valley Flyer infrastructure improvements).
Boston <> North Adams, via Springfield (higher investment west of Greenfield): 3h30m
Boston <> North Adams, via Northern Tier (lower investment full length): 3h57m
Boston <> North Adams, via Northern Tier (higher investment full length): 2h54m
In addition, even if we went with the lower-investment alternative (1h20m between Greenfield and North Adams), you still end up with Boston <> North Adams travel times of just about 4 hours — but with the added connectivity benefits described above.
In summary:
Boston <> Greenfield, via Northern Tier (lower investment): 2h35m
Boston <> Greenfield, via Northern Tier (higher investment): 2h0m
Boston <> Greenfield, via Springfield: 2h45m
Boston <> North Adams, via Springfield (higher investment west of Greenfield): 3h30m
Boston <> North Adams, via Springfield (lower investment west of Greenfield): 4h5m
Boston <> North Adams, via Northern Tier (lower investment full length): 3h57m
Boston <> North Adams, via Northern Tier (higher investment full length): 2h54m
Costs
The Northern Tier full length lower investment alternative is estimated at about $1 billion. The full length higher investment alternative is about $2 billion.
Based on a distance of approximately 33 miles between Greenfield and North Adams, and on the cost-per-mile estimates provided above, the Greenfield <> North Adams segment would cost $241 million at the lower investment, and $508 million at the higher investment.
(The slides are a little unclear whether upgrades would be required in and west of the Hoosac Tunnel; if nothing is needed there, then the distance drops to 26 miles, dropping the estimates to $190M and $400M respectively.)
By comparison, the NNEIRI estimated that the infrastructure costs for the entire NNEIRI — encompassing not only Boston <> Springfield, but also New Haven <> Montreal — at about $1.2B in 2016, equivalent to $1.5B in 2024. I couldn’t actually find specific estimates for Boston <> Springfield, but they estimated the infrastructure costs for the longer Boston <> New Haven segment at about $500M (give or take $50M), which is about $650M in 2024.
Boston <> New Haven is about 141 miles, while Boston <> Greenfield is only 117 miles. At 83% of the distance, we can broadly estimate the cost of Boston <> Greenfield via Springfield at $540M in 2024 dollars.
To compare Boston <> Greenfield costs:
- via Northern Tier: ~$759M – $1.5B
- via Springfield: $540M
It’s also worth noting that the Springfield alignment’s improvements are probably going to happen anyway. With the CommPass Rail proposal, there is much more political momentum for that project than there is for the Northern Tier (to say nothing of the larger cities it serves). If that’s the case, then the Northern Tier costs above should be considered as additional costs beyond the Springfield alignment:
- via Northern Tier: ~$1.3B – $2.0B
- via Springfield: $540M
Comparing per Destination Pairs
As demonstrated below, the lower investment Northern Tier alt does not provide significant benefit more than the Springfield alt, but is notably more expensive. The higher investment Northern Tier alt saves riders about 40 minutes on journeys to Boston, but would cost an extra $1 billion to do so.
(In all examples below, the Northern Tier costs do not include the additional costs of the Springfield alt, even though I maintain that there is essentially no scenario in which Northern Tier is built and Springfield isn’t; in all likelihood, what we are actually comparing is “Springfield” vs “Springfield + Northern Tier.” But, the estimates below simply take a “Springfield” vs “Northern Tier” approach.)
Boston <> Greenfield
- Journey time:
- Northern Tier (higher investment): 2h0m
- Northern Tier (lower investment): 2h35m
- Springfield: 2h45m
- Cost:
- Springfield: $0.54B
- Northern Tier (lower investment): $0.76B (or $1.3B)
- Northern Tier (higher investment): $1.5B (or $2.0B)
The Springfield alignment provides a similar journey time as the lower investment Northern Tier alt, at 71% of the cost. The higher investment Northern Tier alt is 45 minutes faster than the Springfield, at 2.8 times the cost. The 45 minute savings costs $1 billion.
Boston <> North Adams
- Journey time:
- Northern Tier (higher investment): 2h54m
- Springfield (higher investment): 3h30m
- Northern Tier (lower investment): 3h57m
- Springfield (lower investment): 4h5m
- Cost:
- Springfield (lower investment): $0.78B
- Springfield (higher investment): $1B
- Northern Tier (lower investment): $1B
- Northern Tier (higher investment): $2B
With the lower investment alts, the travel times are basically equal whether via Northern Tier or Springfield; the Springfield alignment is about $200M cheaper. At higher investment, the Northern Tier is 35 minutes faster, for the cost of an extra $1 billion.
Commuting orientation
Routing through Springfield would give North Adams one-seat connectivity to Springfield and the Connecticut River Valley (including Northampton and Holyoke), as well as Worcester, and will offer much more frequent transfers to CT and NYC service at Springfield than will be available at Greenfield.
Based on my analysis of OnTheMap data, North Adams has a stronger orientation toward the Springfield/Worcester/Boston corridor than it does to Greenfield/Fitchburg/Boston. Greenfield itself has strong orientation toward Amherst + Northampton, Springfield, and Worcester/Boston, with essentially no orientation toward Fitchburg.
(Notably, North Adams is actually most strongly aligned with Pittsfield, 17 miles to the south.)
The Springfield alignment would give North Adams (and Greenfield) residents a 1-seat-ride to larger cities, 2-seat transfers to a larger array of destinations with greater flexibility, and would serve stronger job markets.
Integration to CommPass network
Routing via Springfield would allow Northern Tier service to be woven into the larger East-West Rail megaproject, instead of having to stand alone and advocate for what otherwise looks like a rather boutique service. Rail to North Adams will require upgrades to trackage between the Pioneer Valley and the edge of MBTA territory; going via Springfield gives you more bang for the buck, and makes monies available for higher-impact upgrades between Greenfield and North Adams.
As a speculative example, a North Adams branch in a larger New England rail network, using the CommPass model, might look like this.
It is true that the Springfield alternative costs Greenfield and North Adams riders about 40 minutes of travel time. However, I would argue that, overall, the Springfield alignment presents a much more cost-effective solution — and is therefore that much likelier to actually come to fruition. The Springfield alignment also provides Greenfield and North Adams residents with better access to jobs and better connectivity across the Commonwealth and New England.
Greenfield and North Adams (and Williamstown) would do well to join a coalition of communities including Northampton, Amherst, Holyoke, Springfield, Palmer, and Worcester, to advocate for CommPass rail, with the inclusion of a branch to North Adams.